Major League Baseball Draft

In any sport drafting young talent, regardless of how much prep work a team does, is a crap shoot. Major League Baseball has the biggest challenge. Only a hand-full of number one draft picks start at the major league level. It can take years before that player develops his skills to the point where he gets called up and then the real test starts on whether or not his is good enough to stay and be productive.

History shows us that being the number one overall pick isn’t a guarantee that a player will turn out to be the superstar a team hoped he would be when he was drafted.

Stephen Strasburg

Making the Right Choice in the Draft

That is why I think the Washington Nationals deserve a lot of credit for hitting the ball out of the park with two consecutive number one overall picks. Stephen Strasburg in 2009 and Bryce Harper in 2010

National's Rookie Bryce Harper

appear to be the real thing. Strasburg missed almost all of the 2011 season after having “Tommy John” surgery, he’s 2-0 with a 1.13 ERA after five starts this year. Harper, a nineteen year old, was called up recently and after four games is batting .385. Obviously four games don’t make a career, but I think it shows that this kid seems to be everything that has been said about him. Harper won’t be the first nineteen year old to have a great career. Some other notable names that came before him are Robin Yount (18.2), Al Kaline (19.1), Ken Griffey, Jr. (19.1), Mickey Mantle (19.2), and Brooks Robinson (19.3). They are all Hall of Famers with the exception of Griffey, Jr. who will be in four years.

Since 2000, there are a few examples of teams that which they could get a mulligan on the choice of number one overall. They are:

Teams That Wish They Could Have Do-Overs

2002: The Pittsburgh Pirates select Bryan Bullington (RHP). In five years he

Detroit Tiger Prince Fielder

pitched in 13 games compiling a 1-9 record and a 5.62 ERA. They passed on B.J. Upton (2) and Prince Fielder (7).

2004: The San Diego Padres chose Matt Bush (SS). In six minor league seasons he has compiled a .219 batting average.  He’s been converted to pitcher, and was considered a prospect again until this spring, when he was arrested for driving under the influence and a hit-and-run accident in Florida. The Padres passed on Justin Verlander (2), Jered Weaver (12) and Stephen Drew (15).

2006: The Kansas City Royals pick Luke Hochevar (RHP). He’s 32-45 with a 5.37 ERA in five-plus seasons with the Royals. They passed on Evan

Tampa Bay Rays Evan Longoria

(2), Clayton Kershaw (7), and Tim Lincecum (10).

2008: The Tampa Bay Rays select Tim Beckham (SS). In 4+ minor league seasons he has compiled a .263 average. His currently batting .204. Playing shortstop for Triple-A Durham, Beckham was suspended for 50 games after testing positive for a “drug of

Kansas City Royal Eric Hosmer

abuse”. The Rays passed on Eric Hosmer (3) and Buster Posey (5).

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Ivan Rodriguez, Texas Ranger

Congratulations to Ivan Rodriguez on what should be a Hall of Fame career. Ivan “Pudge” Rodríguez, a 14-time All Star catcher, ended a 21-season playing career when he officially announced his retirement as a Texas Ranger.

Hall of Fame Career

Rodriguez hit .296 with 311 home runs and 1,332 RBIs in 2,543 games overall with Texas (1991-2002, 2009), Florida Marlins (2003), Detroit Tigers (2004-08), the New York Yankees (2008), Houston (2009), and Washington Nationals (2010-11). His 13 Gold Gloves were the most for a catcher.

American League MVP

Rodriguez hit .332 with 35 home runs and 113 runs batted in (RBI) in 1999, when he was the American League MVP. He is also regarded as one of the best defensive catchers of all time. Rodríguez won the World Series with the Marlins in 2003, and also played in the 2006 World Series while with the Tigers. On June 17, 2009, Rodríguez set a MLB record by

Rodriguez had a rifle for an arm.

catching his 2,227th game, passing Carlton Fisk. During his career, he had the best caught stealing percentage of any major league catcher, at 45.68%.

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Pitcher, John Smoltz

The Atlanta Braves are retiring John Smoltz‘s number. Smoltz will be the ninth Braves player to have his number retired by the team. The Braves announced that Smoltz’s No. 29 will never be worn by another Braves player. Smoltz also will be inducted into the Braves Hall of Fame at Turner Field. The ceremonies will take place June 8. He joins Greg Maddux (31) and Tom Glavine(47). These three pitchers who helped Atlanta win a record 14 straight division titles in the 1990s and 2000s. They are arguably the best three

Maddox, Smoltz and Glavine

pitchers in the same rotation in baseball history. Combined, they recorded 863 wins plus Smoltz’s 154 saves.

The Tigers Trade Smoltz

The Detroit Tigers drafted Smoltz in the 22nd round of the 1985 amateur draft. He was the 574th selection of the draft. In 1987, the Tigers, who were in a three-team race, chasing the Toronto Blue Jays for the American League East division lead traded Smoltz to the Atlanta Braves. Detroit needed pitching help, so they sent their 20-year-old prospect to the Braves for 36-year-old veteran Doyle Alexander. Alexander went 9-0 for Detroit and helped them get into the

Tiger Pitcher, Doyle Alexander

playoffs. However, he was 0-2 with an ERA 10.0 in the playoffs. He had a decent year in ’88 (14-11), but after going 6-18 in 1989 he retired.

Smoltz Misses a Year

He underwent Tommy John surgery prior to the 2000 season, missing the entire year. When he was unable to perform effectively as a starter in 2001, Smoltz made a transition to the bullpen, filling a void as Atlanta’s new closer down the stretch, replacing John Rocker. He spent four years as the team’s closer before returning to a starting role. In 2002 he became only the second pitcher in history to have had both a 20-win season and a 50-save season (the other being Hall of Famer Dennis Eckersley). He is the only pitcher

Dennis Eckersley

in major league history to top both 200 wins and 150 saves. Smoltz threw a four-seam fastball that was clocked as high as 98 miles per hour, a strong, effective slider, and an 88–91 mph split-finger fastball that he used as a strikeout pitch. He became the 16th member of the 3,000 strikeout club on April 22, 2008.

A Future Hall of Famer

John spent 20 years with the Braves before splitting his final season in 2009 between Boston and St. Louis. He was selected as an All-Star eight times and in 1996 a 24-8 and ERA of 2.94 were good enough for him to win the Cy Young Award.

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MLB Money

The major league average salary rose 4.1 percent to $3.44 million, the steepest hike since 2008. Revenue sharing has spread the wealth, and more teams have rich cable television contracts. Surprisingly, million-dollar salaries dropped slightly, from 453 to 448. Still, that’s nearly 53 percent of the 852 players on Opening Day rosters and disabled lists. The number of $10 million players increased from 82 to 89, and $20 million stars rose from 10 to 14. Sixty-eight players make the $480,000 minimum — boosted from $414,000 under baseball’s new labor contract. The median salary; the point at which an equal number are above and below, declined by $25,000 to $1,075,000, down from a record $1,125,000 in 2009.

The Big Contract Gamble

The San Francisco Giants and the Cincinnati Reds have joined the lunacy

Reds Joey Votto

known as baseball contracts. The Giants signed Matt Cain to a 6 year, $127.5m deal, while the Reds locked up first baseman Joey Votto with a 10 year, $225m contract. Votto is 28, and will be 39 at the end of the deal. If you add this extension to the previous contract, which was signed just last year, Votto’s 10-year, $225 million extension is actually 12 years and $251.15m. Votto also has a club-option year (2024) for another $20m.

At signing, Cain’s contract was the largest-ever for a right-handed pitcher. However, he may not be able to make that claim for too long. Cain’s teammate Tim Lincecum and the Los Angeles Dodgers’ Clayton Kershaw probably will get a big paydays within the next two years. Cain also has a $21m option for 2018, which becomes guaranteed if Cain 1) pitches 200 innings in 2017 or 400 innings in 2016-17 and 2) is not on the disabled list at the end of the 2017 season with injury to right elbow or right shoulder.

In Cain’s case I wonder if the ghost of Barry Zito crossed management’s mind. Zito’s contract was also the largest-ever (7 years/$126m) for a pitcher at signing. In the first 5 years of the contract, Zito has compiled a record of 43-61. So far the Giants have paid Zito $79m, that’s about $1.8m a win. Cain has been with the Giants for 7 years during which he has compiled a record of 69-73. He does have a decent career ERA of 3.35. Call me crazy, but $127m, possibly $148m seems like a lot of money for a pitcher with a losing record.

The New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox no longer have the advantage in the free-agent market as they had in the past. Teams like the Texas Rangers and the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim now have the resources to compete with the two richest teams in MLB.

The Rangers were able to afford $111 million for Japanese pitching ace Yu Darvish, including the posting fee, in part because of their lucrative TV deal. It’s reported that the deal is for 20 years and $3 billion. That’s a mere $150m dollar a year just from local TV. And the Angels can afford Albert Pujols because they too have a similar local TV contract. Even the San Diego Padres, who play in the 26th largest market in baseball are, pending MLB approval, poised to sign a new deal with Fox Sports that will guarantee them $75 million a year for the next 20 years.

Who is Really Paying for These Huge Contracts?

Some in baseball think contracts like the one for Votto are the game’s version of the Internet boom in the late 1990s, that clubs are overextending themselves with cash guarantees they won’t be able to make good on. Nobody can be sure how long customers will be OK with rising cable bills, especially in a time when the Internet is already cutting into subscriptions, rising ticket prices, concession prices and the products they buy from the companies that pay the ridiculous advertising rates. Who do you pays for the millions a company spends on advertising? I’ll give you a hint, it’s not the companies.

If Cain, Votto and

1. Pujols (signed thru 2021, 10 years/$240M (12-21)),
2. Fielder, (signed thru 2020, 9 years/$214M (12-20) Ryan Braun (5 years/$105M (2016-20), plus 2021 mutual option is added onto an 8 years/$45M (2008-15)),
3. Troy Tulowitzki (signed thru 2020, 7 years/$45M (08-14), 6 years/$118M (15-20) & 21 team option),
4. Carl Crawford (signed thru 2017, 7 years/$142M), $6M signing bonus
5. Jason Werth (signed thru 2017, 7 years/$126M (11-17)
6. Matt Holliday 7 years/$120M (2010-16), plus 2017 option  (.314 BA, 29 HRs, 109 RBI)
7. Yadier Molina 4 years/$15.5M (2008-11), plus 2012 club option 5 years/$75M (2013-17), plus 2018 mutual option (.274 BA, 10 HRs, 67 RBI)
8. Troy Tulowitzki 10 years/$157.75M (2011-20), plus 2021 club option (career .293 BA, 28 HRs, 103 RBI)

all stay healthy during their super-long-term deals, you’ll see a lot more of this. I believe this trend will continue.

Yankees Alex Rodriguez

Remember, this insanity started back in December of 2000 when former Texas Rangers’ owner Tom Hicks signed Alex Rodriguez to a 10 year, $252M (2001-10) contract. Rodriguez opted out after the 2007 season and signed a 10 year, $275M (2008-17) with the Yankees. And at $30m a year, Alex Rodriguez remains baseball’s highest-paid player for the 12th straight season.

According to the Associated Press, the Miami Marlins, Detroit Tigers, Texas Rangers and Los Angeles Angels all had significant increases in payroll during the offseason. The Miami Marlins increased payroll by about $40 million. Texas’ spending went up by about $27 million, about the same as Detroit’s. Even the Tampa Bay Rays and Kansas City Royals increased payroll. On the other hand, teams that are usually the big spenders like the New York Mets, Chicago Cubs and Chicago White Sox showed decreases in spending.

There is not always a correlation between the salary and player success. There are far more examples of negative outcomes than positive ones. For example; the Angels’ Vernon Wells and Torii Hunter. They are making $21m and $18m respectfully. In 2011 Wells hit .218 and only drove in 66 runs. Hunter wasn’t much better with a batting average of .262.

Certainly Rodriguez’s contract looks worse today than when he signed it in 2007, when he was coming off career bests in on-base and slugging percentages. But his injuries increased and his production declined the last three seasons – at ages 33, 34 and 35.

The golden age of regional sports networking

Los Angeles Dodgers logo

It’s all about these local TV contracts. That’s what drove the sale price on the Dodgers. This continues baseball’s healthy growth that really has been going on for the past decade. The owners are gambling that this growth will continue for another decade. The Dodgers’ franchise value has skyrocketed because of their anticipated TV deal. These deals carry huge risks for the teams. Rodriguez, Pujols and Votto will all be past their 40th birthdays when their contracts expire. This is beyond the age when players skills begin to decline.

These huge guaranteed contracts also add pressure to small-market teams to draft and develop their own impact players, whose pay can be controlled until they reach player free agency after six years in the Major Leagues. The Tampa Bay Rays have figured this out. Look at all the quality players that have come from the Montreal Expos and the Florida (Miami) Marlins.

The Rangers, in bankruptcy just 18 months ago, will have a franchise-record payroll of about $125 million this year, thanks to their Fox Sports Southwest deal. Even after spending $51 million for the rights to negotiate with Darvish, and then giving him a six-year, $60 million deal, they still made a run at free-agent first baseman Prince Fielder. The Detroit Tigers instead landed Fielder with a nine-year, $214 million contract, well-aware their current $40-million-a year take from Fox Sports Detroit could triple with a new broadcast deal before 2018.

It doesn’t take effect until 2015, but the Rangers received $160 million cash up front and an equity stake in Fox Sports Southwest.

Yet, there’s a fear the new TV deals could create an even greater separation between large- and small-market clubs. The Yankees had an average of 318,000 households watching their games on the YES network last year, according to the Nielsen ratings, while the Kansas City Royals averaged 32,000 households.

It does have the potential to hurt competitive balance. The big TV deals are basically a function of market-size and competition. There’s no way that Kansas

MLB Salaries Since 1970

City can get a deal comparable to what the Angels did. “ The Dodgers’ local TV rights, which paid $46 million last year, expire after the 2013 season. Estimates have the Dodgers getting a TV contract that could be worth 2.5 times the value of the team. That’s $4 to $5 billion from regional sports networks.

That will pay for several $200m contracts.

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2011 Topps Lost Cards Set

As part of 2011 baseball, Topps issued the “Lost Cards” set, which includes some of the cards that Topps didn’t produce, for one reason or another, during the years 1953-1957. The list of ten only includes six names: Stan Musial, Mickey Mantle, Whitey Ford, Duke Snider, Bob Feller and Roy Campanella. All but two of the omissions resulted from the contract wars between Topps and Bowman up through their 1955 sets. The other two cards resulted from Stan Musial’s non-appearance in the ’56 and ’57 sets. In fact, four of the cards in the set are Musial cards. Here are the cards in Topps Lost Cards Set:

1-53 Musial # 275          2-53 Snider # 253

3-54 Mantle # 250         4-54 Campy # 252

5-55 Musial # 175          6-55 Ford # 186

7-55 Feller # 203            8-55 Mantle # 211

9-56 Musial #341           10-57 Musial # 408

Topps 1953 Missing Cards

In 1953 Stan Musial was at the peak of his career. He won his 6^thbatting title

Stan Musial 1953 Topps

with a .336 average. Musial had an exclusive contract with Bowman, so Topps was unable to produce a card for him and several other stars.

In 1953, Duke Snider, nicknamed “The Silver Fox”, was just

Duke Snider 1953 Topps Lost Cards

becoming a superstar. He hit 42 home runs, but because of litigation between Topps and Bowman Snider wasn’t included in the Topps ’53 set. There were six cards, #’s 253, 261, 267, 268, 271 and 275 that were not in the set. No one knows for sure, but one of those might have been for Duke.

Topps 1954 Missing Cards

The 1954 Topps set excluded many of the top players including Stan Musial (would not sign with Topps until 1959), Mickey Mantle and Roy Campanella. The ’54 Mantle and Campanella cards are part of the Topps Lost Cards set.

Mickey Mantle 1955 Topps Lost Card

Mickey Mantle appeared in the 1952 and 1953 Topps sets, but not in ’54 and

Mickey Mantle 1954 Topps Lost Cards

’55. Apparently, it had to do with litigation with the Bowman Company that prevented his inclusion.

By 1954 Roy Campanella was one of the premier players in

Roy Campanella 1954 Topps Lost Cards

baseball. He had already won two MVP awards. Like Mantle, Campanella was on the Topps ’52 and ’53 sets, but left off the ’54 and ’55 sets, presumably due to a rights dispute.

Topps 1955 Missing Cards

In 1955, Stan Musial hit .300 for the 13^thconsecutive season. However, he was not included in the 1955 Topps set. There were four cards #175,

Stan Musial 1955 Topps Lost Card

#186, #203 and #209, but there is no official record of which players would have appeared, it is a safe bet that Musial would have been one of them.

By 1955 Bob Feller was past his prime, but he had established himself as one of the greatest pitchers of all time. He had been included in both the first Topps

Bob Feller 1955 Topps Lost Cards

set in ’52 and again in ’53. For whatever reason he wasn’t in the ’54 and ’55 sets, but made his final appearance in 1956 with card number 200.

Whitey Ford 1955 Topps Lost Cards

In 1955 Whitey Ford was another victim of the litigation between Topps and Bowman. His card was not part of the ’55 set. It was the only set between 1953 and 1967 that he wasn’t included.

Topps 1956 Missing Card

Musial did not appear in the 1956 Topps set, even

Stan Musial 1956 Topps Lost Cards

though the company had bought the picture rights from competitor Bowman in January of that year. This meant that star players would no longer be excluded from the set due to litigation.

Topps 1957 Missing Card

In 1957, Musial hit .351 to win his 7^thbatting title, but he did not appear on a baseball card.

Stan Musial 1957 Topps Lost Cards1957

Even though Topps owned the picture rights to every player by this time, Musial declined to accept the standard fee and as a result still had never been included in a Topps set. He made his debut the next year as a SPORT magazine All-Star Selection, card #476.

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Major League Baseball

Is anyone surprised that Major League Baseball (MLB) has put off expanding replay? There will be no expanded replay this year. MLB says expanded replay will have to wait at least another year. They won’t even commit to changes for next year. “We weren’t able to come up with an acceptable set of agreements between the three parties,” MLB executive vice president for labor relations Rob Manfred told the Associated Press on Tuesday. “We hope we’ll be able to do it in time for the 2013 season.”

The reason this isn’t going to happen this year and who knows how many more years is the unions. The additional replay requires the approval of MLB and the unions representing the umpires and the players. MLB executive Rob Manfred told The Associated Press that all three sides weren’t able to come up with an agreement.

The sport’s new labor deal provides for the opportunity to expand on that. The question is when?

The Umpire Union is the Current Roadblock

For implementing technology that would make an umpire’s job easier and less stressful, the umpires would like something in return — maybe additional retirement or disability benefits, or perhaps a seventh umpire for postseason crews so more umps could get a chance in October.

The salary for a full-time MLB umpire ranges from $120,000 as a rookie to about $350,000 for the most experienced umpires. Based on their 162-game

Well what did you see; I'm not sure, how about you?

schedules, the most experienced umpires average $2,160 per game in salary compensation. That’s about $540 an hour. In addition MLB umpires receive full health benefits, as well as first-class air travel, and a $357 per diem (per day) for hotel and meals. Plus they get about four months vacation.

So again, thanks to the union, its members won’t agree to improve the sport and help them do their jobs better because they want more. Now the other union, the players union wants to wait to weigh in until after MLB and the umpires reach an understanding. Don’t hold your breath.

Unions have far outreached their original intent. Today, the people running the unions get rich while telling their members to go on strike losing more money in lost wages than they will ever makeup in whatever increase in salary they should get. Today, unions are roadblocks to change and progress.

The hope was that MLB would increase video reviews this season to include trapped balls, fair-or-foul calls down the lines and fan interference all around the ballpark. Since baseball initiated replay late in the 2008 season to let umpires check potential home run balls, there hasn’t been any changes.

After several minutes under the stadium, the umpires return to the field with a decision

Even the Current Replay was Implemented Wrong

Baseball couldn’t get the current replay system right. One of the reasons some people think expanding replay will lengthen the games is because in order to review a potential home run umpires have to leave the field to go to a room under the stadium. I propose a solution to this problem towards the end of this post.

Umpires were concerned the television feeds they received to review calls were not equal at every ballpark. Why isn’t this a problem when checking for home runs under the current system?

Also at issue is how calls would be made under expanded replay and who would ask for a challenge. Would umpires still make the final decision, as they do now? Or would there be an NHL-style conference room with an MLB executive making the ruling?

Addressing the Issues (a.k.a excuses)

This is just more proof that MLB isn’t doing anything in regards to expanding replay. All of these issues should have been addressed long ago. So I’m going to try and help out by giving MLB solutions to these issues.

1. Issue: Different levels of television feeds throughout baseball

Solution: Find funds from the billions of dollars MLB takes in each year and upgrade the below standard parks. The fans watching those teams on TV would also benefit.

2.  Issue: Who would ask for a challenge?

Solution: This one is easy. Only the managers could ask for a challenge. You could limit them to three challenges per game.

3.  Issue: Would umpires still make the final decision?

Solution: The umpires would still make the final decision after reviewing the play. I would also suggest that a fifth umpire be added to a crew so that one of them would be in the replay booth and could review the play in a matter of seconds and relay his decision to the umpires on the field. The review booth would be added to the current umpire rotation. This adds an additional umpire for the whole year, not just the playoffs.

Now for you idiots who think instant replay will make games last longer, take

This scene can be eliminated with instant replay

your stop watch out and hit start when a manager leaves the dugout to protest a call. Now stop the watch when he returns to the dugout. The watch will show the minutes the game was delayed by a manager making a futile attempt to get the call overturned. In some instances if the argument gets too heated the manager and potentially a player gets ejected. All of this wasted time would eliminated with instant replay. In a matter of seconds the umpire in the replay booth could review the play and make the right call in far less time and without any ejections.

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Major League Baseball Logo

Major League Baseball (MLB) has added a second wildcard team from each league. It is the first playoff expansion since 1995. Adding more cities with an opportunity to make the postseason is the right thing to do. Baseball still trails every other sport in the percentage of teams that qualify for the playoffs, despite playing twice as many games. However, I have mixed feelings about this. I like that another team will have a chance to make the playoffs. I don’t like that the two wildcard team will play a one game play-in. The winner of the one-game playoff will face the team with the league’s best record in the Division Series.

My biggest objection of the new playoff system is that after undergoing an arduous 162-game season and earning a playoff berth, two teams can be eliminated in 24 hours.

If the playoffs had included 10 teams when the wildcard was implemented in 1995, the second wildcard team would have averaged 89 victories. And 11 teams would have won at least 90 games, so by adding the second wildcard team they aren’t diluting the quality of teams making the playoffs. The 2011 St. Louis Cardinals are the fifth wildcard team to win the World Series since the playoff field doubled in 1995. The other four wildcard champions were the Florida Marlins (now the Miami Marlins) in 1997 and 2003, the Anaheim Angels (now the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim) in 2002 and the Boston Red Sox in 2004.

Follow the Money

This is obviously all about the money. By having what amounts to a Game 7 in each league MLB will draw a huge audience. This should recreate the same type of excitement that was played out on September 28, 2011. Arguably, this was the best night ever in MLB history. Ironically had this system been implemented last year despite their staggering September collapses, the Red Sox and Atlanta Braves would have gotten into the playoffs as the second wildcard under the new system.

The most significant impact this change has is that now winning your division is even more important. Not only do you get home field advantage, but you won’t have to play in that one-game playoff. Even if you win the “play-in” game you have probably used your ace pitcher. Plus, it’s another day they have to use their bullpen. So even if you get by that one game, the chances of winning the next round are not very good.

A Third Place Team Could Win the World Series

Here is the ugly scenario that could happen under the new system. Let’s say Team A wins 95 games but finishes second to Team B and then gets eliminated in the one-game playoff by Team C that won only 86 games. In this scenario, a third place team could win the World Series.

There will always be inequity when leagues are divided into divisions. This allows for the possibility of a team missing the playoffs with a better record than some of those that qualified. Bottom line, win your division.

The American League East could have three strong teams fighting for the division title. The New York Yankees, Tampa Bay Rays and Red Sox want to get into the postseason, but not as a wildcard with the chance of being eliminated in one game. As long as a team still has chance to win the division there won’t be any resting of starters, even if they have clinched a wildcard spot.

On the flip side, once a team has locked up the American League Central they will have the luxury of resting their starters because no other team in their division is contending for either the division or one of the two wild cards. In this scenario the new format hurts the teams in strong divisions while rewarding teams in weak divisions that it can clinch early.

It’s Not Fair!

As long as you have divisions and wildcards there will be unfairness. Before 1969, the two teams with the best record in their respective leagues played the World Championship and home field advantage wasn’t determined by a meaningless exhibition game. MLB split into two divisions in each league in 1969, and in 1994 they went to three divisions. 1995 was the year the wild card came into existence.

The primary reason the wildcard was added was related to the 1993 season. The San Francisco Giants finished the season with a 103-59, but didn’t make the playoffs because they were unfortunately in the same division as the 104-58 Atlanta Braves. Adding wildcards doesn’t resolve the problem because it’s possible the wild card team(s) has a better record than two other division winners, yet they have to take part in the play-in game.

To prove my point, since 1995, 14 teams have missed the playoffs even though they had a better record than one of the division winners. Doesn’t seem right, does it?

A Better Idea

If I were “King” I have the five teams with the best records in each league (regardless of Divisions) and have the two lowest teams play a best of two out of three to determine the fourth team. Teams shouldn’t be rewarded because they play in a weak division. If you’re barely over .500, you shouldn’t make the playoffs.

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St. Louis Cardinals

As we approach the 2012 Major League Baseball season I was wondering if the St. Louis Cardinals minus Albert Pujols had enough left to successfully defend their world championship. Defending any title is never easy, especially when you lose a player of the caliber of Pujols from your lineup. The loss of a player of Pujols’ magnitude could cripple most teams. I don’t see that happening with the Cardinals. This team has won 11 World Championships and has been in the playoffs 8 of the last 12 years. The Cardinals don’t ever seem to be in a rebuilding mode, but instead it is a reloading mode. Here is my breakdown of the 2012 St. Louis Cardinals:

IN THE OUTFIELD

As a possible replacement for Pujols, the Cardinals signed Carlos Beltran. Hopefully the Cardinals do not expect Beltran to produce Pujols’ numbers, but they do need Beltran to produce similar stats that he had last season. He had a

Carlos Beltran

combined .300 average with 22 home runs, 88 RBI and scored 78 runs. Compare those to Pujols’ .299/37/99/105.  If Beltran still had the speed he displayed earlier in his career, the Cardinals might put him in the number two spot, but it is more likely that he will bat fourth behind Matt Holiday.

Matt Holliday had a good 2011 season hitting .296 with 22 HRs, 75 RBI and scored 83 runs. However, those numbers were below his career average of .315/29/110/107.  The St. Louis Cardinals will need

Matt Holiday

more production out of Holliday in 2012. Batting in the number 3 spot with Beltran behind him should help. In addition to improving his offensive numbers, he needs to stay healthy, he missed 38 games in 2011.

Jon Jay should be the starting center fielder. Jay should continue to perform well defensively. If Jay’s slugging numbers (10 HRS, 37 RBI and .344 OBP) don’t improve he won’t be part of the solution to help fill the Pujols gap.

Pujols’ departure opens a right field spot. Lance Berkman will move to first. Allen Craig, a former first-round pick of the Cardinals, should be the everyday right fielder when he is fully recovered from offseason knee surgery that requires him to miss the first month of the season.

Cardinal Outfielder Allen Craig

In 2011, Craig hit .315 in 75 games. Plus he hit 11 home runs and drove in 40 in only 200 at-bats. The right-handed slugger offers the Cardinals added pop off the bat. On defense, Craig is a very versatile. In only 119 games with St. Louis, Craig has already seen action at six positions, including first base. This gives the Cardinals added depth to a squad with a couple aging players (i.e. Lance Berkman).

THE INFIELD

In 2011 the Cardinals traded for Rafael Furcal to play shortstop in attempt to fill a need they have had for several years. Furcal’s production at the plate was less than impressive. In 50 games he hit .255, scored 29 runs, stole 4 bases and had and OBP of .316. He needs to get on base more to take advantage of his speed. His fielding was an upgrade to a defensive that had a lot of holes.

If David Freese can perform any way close to what he did during the 2011 postseason, batted .397 with five home runs and a postseason record 21 RBI,  he should play a major role in filling the gap. The Cardinals should

David Freese

be set for a while with the talented Freese at third base. If Freese can stay off the DL for the first time in his major league career he should produce solid numbers for the Cardinals, to help fill the “gap”.

With the departure of Pujols there is a need to fill the first base position. For the better part of the last decade this position has been filled by Albert Pujols. That should be a no brainer with the 2011 MLB Comeback Player of the Year, Lance Berkman on board. Berkman had a great 2011 season; hitting 31 home runs, 94 RBIs, 90 runs and had an OBP of .412. The move to first base will save Berkman’s legs for the season. Defensively, he is a dependable first baseman.

Daniel Descalso

Second base continues to be a problem area for the Cardinals. Skip Schumaker signed a two-year deal, so he is in the mix to be the second baseman. The Cardinals need Schumaker to be more productive offensively. His .283 average was good, but with an OBP of .333 he only scored 34 runs. Schumaker’s primary competition for the second base position is Daniel Descalso. Descalso’s 2011 numbers are close to Schumaker’s, with a .264 average, .334 OBP and only 35 runs scored.

BEHIND THE PLATE

Yadier Molina

Yadier Molina is, arguably, the best defensive catcher in baseball. If Molina has as good a year as he did in 2011 where he had highs in batting average, HRs, RBI, OBP and runs scored the Cardinals will be very happy.

THE STARTING ROTATION

With the distinct possibility that the Cardinals will score less runs 2012 than they did in 2011, the pitching staff will have to step-up and give up less runs. With Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright and Jaime Garcia at the top of their rotation they have the arms to pull it off.

Chris Carpenter

Hopefully Chris Carpenter will pick up where he left-off in the 2011 playoffs. Assuming he has fully recovered from breaking his toe on a fishing trip to the Amazon he should have better start than he did in 2011.

The Cardinals were without 20 game winner (2010) Adam Wainwright for the entire 2011 season. Even without Wainwright the Cardinals were able to overcome that loss, and with an incredible late season run were able to win one of the most exciting World Series for their 11^thworld Championship. If Wainwright returns to his previous level of performance it would give the Cardinals two legitimate aces.

Also having Wainwright back will cut down on bullpen innings as well.

Jaime Garcia who has won 13 games in each of his first two years should continue to improve. With Garcia as the third starter the Cardinals have starting rotation is one of the best in baseball. Garcia will only get better under guidance of pitching coach Dave Duncan.

Kyle Lohse sits in the number 4 slot. He won 14 games in 2011 with a 3.39 ERA. Lohse will be a solid fourth or fifth starter for the St. Louis Cardinals.

Unless the Cardinals sign Roy Oswalt, Jake Westbrook will probably be the fifth starter. He was 12-9 in 2011 with a not so good 4.66 ERA. If the Cardinals sign Oswalt, he would either the third or fourth starter in the rotation.

A POSSIBLE 12^th CHAMPIONSHIP

The Cardinals will get Allen Craig back after knee surgery, which is good news.

Lance Berkman Cardinals

If Carlos Beltran has a “Lance Berkman” type year, Berkman can have another solid season, Matt Holiday stays healthy and performs at his career numbers, Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter stay healthy and pitch at the level they are capable of and the bullpen repeats its supremacy the Cardinals could be hanging their 12^th World Championship banner.

The bottom line is that Cardinal fans should be optimistic about the future. Obviously losing Pujols wasn’t a good thing, but having the $250 million available and a very good farm system the Cardinals should be in a good position before the trade deadline to reload if necessary.

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Baseball News

As we approach the beginning of spring training, I would like to take a look at which teams I think took step forwards or backwards during this past off season. The big names that changed teams were of course Albert Pujols, C.J. Wilson, Prince Fielder, Jose Reyes and Yu Darvish.

If you are a fan of these teams, you should be excited. These signings give your team a good chance to be in the 2012 Fall Classic, but what looks good on paper doesn’t always translate into success on the field. If you don’t believe me, ask the 2011 Red Sox. After signing Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez they were supposed to run away with the AL East.

Here are my biggest winners and losers of the off-season.

The Winners

Los Angeles Angels Logo

Los Angeles Angels – Any team that signed Albert Pujols has to be on the top of the list. For the second year in a row the Angels came up short finishing second to the Texas Rangers. In 2011 they finished 86-76, ten games behind the Rangers. In addition to Pujols, the Angels added pitchers left handed C.J. Wilson and right handed LaTroy Hawkins. Prior to 2010, the Angels were in playoffs six times during the period 2002-2009. They were the perennial favorites to win the American League

Albert Pujols in Angels Uniform

West Division. After adding three time MVP Albert Pujols and All-Star starting pitcher C.J. Wilson, the Angels should be able to give the Rangers a battle for the division title.

Texas Rangers – After losing C.J. Wilson to the Angels, the Rangers spent over $100M to acquire Japanese pitcher

Yu Darvish Texas Ranger

right-hander Yu Darvish. They also acquired closer Joe Nathan. This should allow them to move Neftali Feliz into the starting rotation. With a starting lineup that includes Josh Hamilton, Adrian Beltre, Nelson Cruz, Mike Napoli, Michael Young and Ian Kinsler they will definitely contend for the AL West title again in 2012.

New York Yankees – After recording the most wins (97) in the American League (AL), the Yankees were again

Michael Pineda Joins Yankee Rotation

eliminated before reaching the World Series. They desperately needed to address their starting rotation. They did so by acquiring two young pitchers, including 23-year-old Michael Pineda (6’ 7” 260 lbs.) and 19-year-old pitcher Jose Campos (6′ 4″, 195 lbs.) from the Seattle Mariners. In addition they also acquired 37-year-old RHP Hiroki Kuroda (6′ 1″, 190 lbs.). They gave up a lot, highly touted hitting prospect Jesus Montero, in order to Pineda.

The Yankees signed ace CC Sabathia to an extension. They return the most of their position players, including Alex Rodriguez, who needs to regain his form and produce in accordance with his nearly $30M salary. I hope they are negotiating with a team(s) to trade A.J. Burnett.

Detroit Tigers – Winners of the AL Central in 2011, the Tigers landed the other big fish when they signed 1B Prince Fielder to a nine year contract.

Prince Fielder Detroit Tigers

Fielder should more than fill the void left when they lost Victor Martinez for the season with a torn ACL. A possible down side is that Miguel Cabrera will have to move to third base. We’ll see if an older and heavier Cabrera can handle the hot corner.  With starters Justin Verlander and Doug Fister at the top of the rotation, and Jose Valverde closing the Tigers pitching looks pretty solid. They also signed 38 year old RHP Octavio Dotel for bullpen help.

Miami Marlins – The Marlins have a new name, manager, stadium, shortstop and two starting pitchers. Will any of these new factors help improve on a 72-90 2011 record? The Marlins have added RHP Heath Bell, SS Jose Reyes,

Jose Reyes Marlins' Shortstop

LHP Mark Buehrle, and RHP Carlos Zambrano. Can new manager Ozzie Guillen control Zamrano and stroke a temperamental Hanley Ramirez who is being asked to move to third base to make room for shortstop Jose Reyes?  If so, then the Marlins have a good chance to improve on a 90 loss season. They improved their bullpen by signing closer Heath Bell. Left-hander Mark Buehrle should significantly improve their starting rotation.

Honorable Mention:

Philadelphia Phillies – The team that won 102 regular season games last year improved their bullpen by signing closer Jonathan Papelbon.

The Losers

Houston Astros

Houston Astros - The Astros have a new owner (Jim Crane) and new general manager (Jeff Luhnow). Hopefully these guys can breathe new life into this dying franchise. Houston doesn’t have very much going for it at this time. Last year the Astros traded away their two best young players, Hunter Pence and Michael Bourn. Plus, they are still burdened with the substantial contracts of Carlos Lee ($18.5M), Wandy Rodriguez ($10M, $13M) and Brett Myers ($11M). Adding SS Jed Lowrie, C Chris Snyder and LHP Zach Duke isn’t going to help much to improve on their 2011 record of 56-106. A move to the AL West should keep the Astros cellar dwellers for a long time.

New York Mets – The Mets lost two of their best players, shortstop Jose Reyes and outfielder Carlos Beltran. They didn’t make any major off-season acquisitions. They did add right-handers Frank Francisco and Jon Rauch, which should help improve their bullpen. Last year Jason Bay .245 BA, .329

Johan Santana, Mets

OBP, 59 Runs 12 HRs and 57 RBI and David Wright .254, .345 OBP, 60 Runs, 14 HRs and 61 RBI had off years. If both of them don’t bounce back in 2012, the Mets are really in trouble. The other big question mark is Johan Santana. Can he return to form after shoulder surgery cost him the entire 2011 season?

Milwaukee Brewers – When you replace Prince Fielder with 3B Aramis Ramirez you have to see that as a step backward. Ramirez has been an above average player during his 14 seasons. He averages .284 with

Ramirez Brewer 3rd Baseman

30 HRs and 108 RBI. He will be 34 in June and not only does he have to help fill the Fielder void, but also for Ryan Braun.  The Brewers be might without 2011 MVP Ryan Braun for 50 games, pending an appeal of a suspension after a positive test for performance-enhancing drugs. Fortunately for the Brewers they have a solid rotation led by Yovani Gallardo, Shaun Marcum and Zack Greinke. I doubt that they can come close to 96 wins in 2012, and I would be surprised if they can keep pace with the St. Louis Cardinals and Cincinnati Reds.

Minnesota Twins – The 2011 season was very disappointing, winning only 63 games when they were favored to win the AL Central. They lost Jason Kubel and Michael Cuddyer to free agency. They added 33 year old Jason Marquis to their starting rotation and relief pitcher RHP Joel Zumaya. Marquis is 104-98 with a career 4.55 ERA. The Twins also signed outfielder Josh Willingham and

Twins Catcher Joe Mauer

INF Jamey Carroll. I’d rather have Kubel and Cuddyer. If Minnesota is to have any chance of winning the AL Central they need Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau to return to form after injury-shortened seasons. Based on the M&M boy’s track record, I would say the odds of the Twins getting past Detroit and even Chicago is slim.

Wait and See

When I wrote this post (see below) Oakland hadn’t signed prized Cuban outfielder Yoenis Cespedes. Yesterday they signed the 26-year-old to a four-year, $36 million deal. This, plus the rumor that the A’s might sign designated hitter Manny Ramirez could change the A’s from Losers to Winners.

Oakland Athletics – The A’s have only been in the playoffs once (2006) since 2003. So I guess they are still in a rebuilding mode. They traded away young, promising pitchers in 26-year-old Gio Gonzalez (Washington), 23-year-old Trevor Cahill (Arizona) and 27-year-old Andrew Bailey (Boston) and replaced one of the starts with soon to be 39 year old RHP Bartolo Colon. The addition of OF Jonny Gomes isn’t going to in any way make-up for the depleted pitching staff and a weak offense. The A’s have no chance of getting past the Randers or Angels and maybe not even the Mariners.

I saw a stat the other day that said the 14 AL teams have spent $776.8 million on major-league contracts for players who became free agents after the World Series and the National League’s 16 clubs have committed $597.3 million. I like the American League chances in the All-Star games for the next few years. National League pitchers will have to deal with Pujols and Fielder who combined for 75 homers and 219 RBI.

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The A’s Kept the Wrong Outfielder

Why would you pay $7M a year to a 32 year old leadoff hitter who has no power? In 2011 Crisp batted .264, scored 69 runs, stole 49 bases and had an On-Base Percentage of .314.

Apparently, the A’s couldn’t afford to keep outfielders David DeJesus (31) and

David DeJesus

Josh Willingham (32). DeJesus (right field) signed a two year, $10M deal with the Chicago Cubs. For his career he has a .284 batting average, scored 90 runs, batted in 70 and has a .356 OBP. He had off year in 2011 after being traded from Kansas City to Oakland, hitting only .240 with a .323 OBP. However, in 2010 he hit .318 with a .384 OBP. In addition, DeJesus is an excellent fielder with a lifetime .992 fielding %. The Oakland Athletics paid DeJesus $6M in 2011 and let him go to the Chicago Cubs for $4.25M. “Monkeyball” logic.

For an extra million a year, the A’s, could have matched Minnesota’s offer and kept Josh Willingham.  Willingham signed with the Twins for three years/$21 million. Willingham’s career stats are pretty good with .262 average, 27 home runs, 88 RBI, 79 runs scored and a .361 OBP. Willingham has hit 20 or more homers in four of six years.

When Does Re-Building End?

Andrew Bailey had 75 saves and a 2.07 ERA for Oakland over the last three

Andrew Bailey

years. He was selected to the All-Star team in 2009 and 2010. Bailey only made $465,000 in 2011 and was due for a significant raise. So the A’s traded him to Boston, who signed him to a one year/$3.9M deal. Now that’s not a lot of money in today’s market.

In yet another questionable move, Billy trades quality starter, Gio Gonzalez to the Washington Nationals. The Nationals sign him to a 5 year/$42M deal. Like Bailey, Gonzalez was due a significant raise from his 2011 salary of $420,000. In the past two year Gonzalez has won 15 and 16 games with ERAs of 3.23 and 3.12.

If I’m an Oakland A’s season ticket holder, I want my money back. There is too much monkey-business for my liking.

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